System of Systems conceptual design methodology for space exploration

The scope of the research is to identify and develop a design methodology for System-of-System (a set of elements and sub-elements able to interact and cooperate in order to complete a mission), based on models, methods and tools, to support the decision makers during the space exploration scenarios design and evaluation activity in line with the concurrent design philosophy. Considering all combinations of system parameters (such as crew size, orbits, launchers, spacecraft, ground and space infrastructures), a large number of mission concept options are possible, even though not all of them are optimal or even feasible. The design methodology is particularly useful in the first phases of the design process (Phase 0 and A) to choose rationally and objectively the best mission concepts that ensure the higher probability of mission success in compliance with the high level requirements deriving from the “user needs”. The first phases of the project are particularly critical for the success of the entire mission because the results of this activity are the starting point of the more costly detailed design phases. Thus, any criticality in the baseline design will involve inevitably into undesirable and costly radical system redesigns during the advanced design phases. For this reason, it is important to develop reliable mathematical models that allow prediction of the system performances notwithstanding the poorly defined environment of very high complexity. In conjunction with the development of the design methodology for system-of-systems and in support of it, a software tool has been developed. The tool has been developed into Matlab environment and provides users with a useful graphical interface. The tool integrates the model of the mission concept, the models of the space elements at system and subsystem level, the cost-effectiveness model or value, the sensitivity and multi-objective optimization analysis. The tool supports users to find a system design solution in compliance with requirements and constraints, such as mass budgets and costs, and provides them with information about cost-effectiveness of the mission. The developed methodology has been applied for the design of several space elements (Man Tended Free Flyer, Cargo Logistic Vehicle, Rover Locomotion System) and several mission scenarios (Moon surface infrastructure support, Cis-Lunar infrastructure delivering, Cis-Lunar infrastructure logistic support), in order to assess advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method. The results of the design activity have been discussed and accepted by the European Space Agency (ESA) and have also been compared and presented to the scientific community. Finally, in a particular case, the study of the locomotion system of a lunar rover, the results of the methodology have been verified through the production and testing of the same system

Orthogonal-Array based Design Methodology for Complex, Coupled Space Systems

The process of designing a complex system, formed by many elements and sub-elements interacting between each other, is usually completed at a system level and in the preliminary phases in two major steps: design-space exploration and optimization. In a classical approach, especially in a company environment, the two steps are usually performed together, by experts of the field inferring on major phenomena, making assumptions and doing some trial-and-error runs on the available mathematical models. To support designers and decision makers during the design phases of this kind of complex systems, and to enable early discovery of emergent behaviours arising from interactions between the various elements being designed, the authors implemented a parametric methodology for the design-space exploration and optimization. The parametric technique is based on the utilization of a particular type of matrix design of experiments, the orthogonal arrays. Through successive design iterations with orthogonal arrays, the optimal solution is reached with a reduced effort if compared to more computationally-intense techniques, providing sensitivity and robustness information. The paper describes the design methodology in detail providing an application example that is the design of a human mission to support a lunar base

SET, A SCENARIO EVALUATOR TOOL FOR SUPPORTING SPACE-EXPLORATION MISSION-ARCHITECTURE DESIGN

The design of space-exploration missions begins with a mission statement that defines the ultimate goals of the mission itself. The mission-architecture defines, instead, how the mission will work in practice, and encompasses all the elements that will take part in it. It includes such issues as the synergies of manned and robotic resources, mission control, and the mission timeline. The mission-architecture design activity is an iterative process in general aimed at the maximization of the cost effectiveness (or value) of the mission and minimization of costs. This is performed by successive comparisons and evaluation of the alternative generated mission architectures. The Scenario Evaluator Tool (SET) is conceived to support the engineering team in the framework of the space mission design process. In particular, SET is a simulation software tool that allows building mission architectures with a significant reduction of development time and computational effort. The software allows the characterization, the comparison, and optimization of exploration scenarios and building blocks through a user friendly graphical interface. Each mission-architecture is characterized and evaluated on the basis of the mass budget of the building blocks, cost index and exploration capabilities. SET is general enough to allow the design of several space exploration scenarios for Gap-analysis studies (flexibility). Further, it allows the users to introduce new model libraries (expandability). This paper describes the main features and the potentialities of the simulation software. To show the working principle of SET, a hypothetical human space-exploration mission scenario has been developed and implemented. The results has been accomplished in the framework of STEPS (Systems and Technologies for the ExPloration of Space), which is a research project co-financed by Piedmont Region (Italy), firms and universities of the Piedmont Aerospace District

Colorectal Cancer Stage at Diagnosis Before vs During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

IMPORTANCE Delays in screening programs and the reluctance of patients to seek medical attention because of the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 could be associated with the risk of more advanced colorectal cancers at diagnosis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was associated with more advanced oncologic stage and change in clinical presentation for patients with colorectal cancer. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included all 17 938 adult patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer from March 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021 (pandemic period), and from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020 (prepandemic period), in 81 participating centers in Italy, including tertiary centers and community hospitals. Follow-up was 30 days from surgery. EXPOSURES Any type of surgical procedure for colorectal cancer, including explorative surgery, palliative procedures, and atypical or segmental resections. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was advanced stage of colorectal cancer at diagnosis. Secondary outcomes were distant metastasis, T4 stage, aggressive biology (defined as cancer with at least 1 of the following characteristics: signet ring cells, mucinous tumor, budding, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and lymphangitis), stenotic lesion, emergency surgery, and palliative surgery. The independent association between the pandemic period and the outcomes was assessed using multivariate random-effects logistic regression, with hospital as the cluster variable. RESULTS A total of 17 938 patients (10 007 men [55.8%]; mean [SD] age, 70.6 [12.2] years) underwent surgery for colorectal cancer: 7796 (43.5%) during the pandemic period and 10 142 (56.5%) during the prepandemic period. Logistic regression indicated that the pandemic period was significantly associated with an increased rate of advanced-stage colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95%CI, 1.01-1.13; P = .03), aggressive biology (OR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.15-1.53; P < .001), and stenotic lesions (OR, 1.15; 95%CI, 1.01-1.31; P = .03). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cohort study suggests a significant association between the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the risk of a more advanced oncologic stage at diagnosis among patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and might indicate a potential reduction of survival for these patients

Applied design methodology for lunar rover elastic wheel

In recent years an increasing interest in the Moon surface operations has been experienced. In the future robotic and manned missions of Moon surface exploration will be fundamental in order to lay the groundwork for more ambitious space exploration programs. Surface mobility systems will be the key elements to ensure an efficient and safe Moon exploration. Future lunar rovers are likely to be heavier and able to travel longer distances than the previously developed Moon rover systems. The Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) is the only manned rover, which has so far been launched and used on the Moon surface. Its mobility system included flexible wheels that cannot be scaled to the heavier and longer range vehicles. Thus the previously developed wheels are likely not to be suitable for the new larger vehicles. Taking all these considerations into account, on the basis of the system requirements and assumptions, several wheel concepts have been discussed and evaluated through a trade-off analysis. Semi-empirical equations have been utilized to predict the wheel geometrical characteristics, as well as to estimate the motion resistances and the ability of the system to generate thrust. A numerical model has also been implemented, in order to define more into the details the whole wheel design, in terms of wheel geometry and physical properties. As a result of the trade-off analysis, the ellipse wheel concept has shown the best behavior in terms of stiffness, mass budget and dynamic performance. The results presented in the paper have been obtained in cooperation with Thales Alenia Space-Italy and Sicme motori, in the framework of a regional program called STEP

GENERAL METHODOLOGY FOR DEMONSTRATION MISSION DESIGN

Future human exploration programs point towards new and more challenging objectives. The exploration of Moon and Mars requires new technologies that shall be developed to have them available in the future. These technologies shall complete demonstration missions in space environment in order to be considered flight qualified. The paper deals with the description of the methodology for the design of the demonstration missions. First the technologies to be tested are selected and for them the TRL is assessed according to the European standards. Then, all the activities necessary to increase the TRL, including analysis, experiments, breadboard/prototype development and tests are identified and planned. The demonstration mission design activity starts after the performance requirements for the technologies are defined. Then, the set of possible mission scenario options is defined and the trade-off activity is performed to choose the most cost-effective solution. The trade-offs are performed considering mass, cost, design complexity and risk level indexes. Finally, the detailed description of the demonstration mission(s) is provided through a complete set of requirement

Orthogonal-Array based Design Methodology for Complex, Coupled Space Systems

The process of designing a complex system, formed by many elements and sub-elements interacting between each other, is usually completed at a system level and in the preliminary phases in two major steps: design-space exploration and optimization. In a classical approach, especially in a company environment, the two steps are usually performed together, by experts of the field inferring on major phenomena, making assumptions and doing some trial-and-error runs on the available mathematical models. To support designers and decision makers during the design phases of this kind of complex systems, and to enable early discovery of emergent behaviours arising from interactions between the various elements being designed, the authors implemented a parametric methodology for the design-space exploration and optimization. The parametric technique is based on the utilization of a particular type of matrix design of experiments, the orthogonal arrays. Through successive design iterations with orthogonal arrays, the optimal solution is reached with a reduced effort if compared to more computationally-intense techniques, providing sensitivity and robustness information. The paper describes the design methodology in detail providing an application example that is the design of a human mission to support a lunar base